September historically shows negative returns averaging -1.1% for the S&P 500 since 1928. With the Magnificent Seven AI stocks comprising 34% of the index, concentration risk could amplify seasonal weakness. However, recent years show mixed results—2023 saw declines while 2024-2025 posted gains. Rather than avoiding AI stocks entirely, investors should rebalance positions and rotate into defensive assets like gold, utilities, and bonds during September weakness.
Axe note: Despite the AI rally, September’s seasonal weakness suggests rotating into safer South African sectors is wise.