Nearly 13% of SpaceX's $4.4 Billion Profit Came From This "Boring" Investment
2026-10-26 17:00
•Adam Spatacco •The Motley Fool
••••• ••••• Axe Cap view
SpaceX’s Profit Surge Masks Heavy Spending and Accounting Gains
SpaceX’s Q3 profit leap owes much to paper gains and enormous capex, raising caution for investors.
SpaceX recently reported a $4.4 billion net profit, but nearly 13% of that came from an unrealized gain tied to its stake in The Boring Company. This isn’t cash in the bank—it’s an accounting valuation move, which can swing widely. Real operational profit was a more modest $2.8 billion, and Capex spending is staggering: almost $20 billion in just one quarter, pushing guidance to $35-40 billion next quarter. For South African investors, this highlights why we can’t rely on headline profits alone, especially in asset-heavy tech ventures with long timelines. The rand’s reaction to such tech capital flows (USD/ZAR) will be a better proxy for global risk appetite and growth expectations than SpaceX’s earnings statement alone. We’d watch the USD/ZAR closely—if cumulative pressure on supply chains or softening tech sentiment hits, expect rand weakness. But if global growth accelerates, rand could gain. The key risk here is that capex-heavy firms may burn cash before profitability truly arrives. this is just our opinion and not financial advice
Stay cautious on tech-inspired currency plays; consider watching USD/ZAR for directional cues but avoid jumping into JSE tech without clear profitability. For now, clients should stick with established banks like Standard Bank and FirstRand, which offer more tangible earnings in a volatile environment.
- USD/ZAR
- Standard Bank
- FirstRand
- Unrealized gains may reverse and hurt earnings
- High capex could pressure cash flow and delay real profits
6/10
SpaceX reported $4.4 billion in net income for Q3 2026, but nearly 13% ($561 million) came from an unrealized accounting gain on its investment in The Boring Company following a $3 billion funding round. While SpaceX's operating income of $2.8 billion shows genuine operational improvement, the company is spending heavily on capex ($19.6 billion in Q3 alone) for AI infrastructure, Starship development, and satellite production, with guidance of $35-40 billion for Q4.
Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.