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History Says This Is the Single Best Strategy for Investors if a Market Crash Is Imminent

2026-08-07 15:32 Adam Levy The Motley Fool Positive Axe Cap view: Selective TechnologyAISemiconductorsEquities SPHQAMJBJPMJPMPCJPMPDJPMPJJPMPKJPMPLJPMPMVYLD

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Why Quality Stocks Should Anchor Your Portfolio Now

Investors should tilt towards highly profitable, low-debt companies as markets face potential turbulence.

History shows that quality stocks—those with strong profitability, robust cash flow, and low debt—tend to cushion losses during market drops while still capturing most of the recovery gains. On the JSE, this points us towards resilient names like Naspers and FirstRand, which combine solid balance sheets with good cash generation. With global AI spending concerns and ongoing volatility, it's prudent to shy away from highly cyclical or heavily indebted firms that tend to suffer more when markets falter. Quality doesn’t mean cheap, but it does mean more predictable businesses that South African investors can rely on when rand volatility spikes or global risk aversion hits. That said, if global growth suddenly accelerates or the rand strengthens sharply—perhaps due to better commodity prices—these defensive plays might lag more cyclical stocks. Choose wisely and expect a smoother ride. this is just our opinion and not financial advice

How I would invest

Buy or increase exposure to established quality counters like Naspers and FirstRand; trim highly cyclical or leveraged shares for now.

What I would watch
  • Naspers
  • FirstRand
  • USD/ZAR
What could go wrong
  • Unexpected global growth pickup lifting risky assets
  • Rand strengthening sharply reducing the local currency returns from defensive stocks
How strongly I feel

7/10

Amid concerns about AI spending slowdowns and market volatility, investors should consider shifting toward quality stocks with strong profitability, low debt, and solid cash flow generation. Historical data shows quality stocks capture only 78.2% of downside in market declines while participating in 96.6% of upside gains, offering better risk-adjusted returns over full market cycles.

Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.

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