SpaceX Stock: 3 Reasons I Am Not Buying the Dip
2026-08-06 16:30
•Prosper Junior Bakiny •The Motley Fool
••••••• • Axe Cap view
Why I'm Staying Clear of SpaceX Shares for Now
SpaceX’s big AI bets, dilution risks, and sky-high valuation make me wary despite rapid revenue growth.
SpaceX’s recent 20% price drop might look like a bargain at first glance given its 92% jump in revenue. But digging deeper, the picture is less rosy. The company is spending nearly $16 billion a quarter on AI, a bet that could pay off, but with no clear timeline or guaranteed returns. On top of that, the planned $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Cursor means existing shareholders will see their stakes diluted noticeably. Lastly, a price-to-sales ratio over 70 is way above anything typical—even tech giants usually trade below 10. For South African investors, this matters because any turbulence in big US tech tends to weaken the rand, dragging down local equities sensitive to currency swings. I’d rather watch the USD/ZAR closely here before taking a chance. My view could be wrong if SpaceX’s AI projects start delivering quicker than expected or if they manage the dilution smartly, but right now, patience is key. this is just our opinion and not financial advice
Avoid buying SpaceX at these levels and monitor the USD/ZAR as a risk gauge. Wait for clearer signs of value or price correction before investing.
- SPCX
- USD/ZAR
- AI investments fail to generate returns
- shareholder dilution dilutes earnings
- broad tech sell-off impacts USD/ZAR and local equities
6/10
SpaceX stock has declined 20% from its IPO price despite strong Q2 revenue growth of 92% to $7.8 billion. The analyst identifies three concerns: massive AI spending ($15.8B capex in Q2) with uncertain near-term returns, shareholder dilution from the $60B all-stock acquisition of Cursor AI startup, and an unreasonable valuation with a P/S ratio of 73.4 compared to industry norms below 2. The author suggests waiting for further price declines before investing.
Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.
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