Should You Ignore the SpaceX Hype and Buy Rocket Lab Instead?
2026-10-24 23:50
•Courtney Carlsen •The Motley Fool
••••• •• Axe Cap view
SpaceX or Rocket Lab: Where to Place Your Bet?
SpaceX’s diversified space empire dwarfs Rocket Lab’s focused launch business, but the latter’s valuation and risks offer a different play for investors.
SpaceX is the heavy hitter in the space economy, with its Starlink broadband growing nearly 70% year on year and an emerging AI segment raking in billions. Its valuation at 70 times sales reflects that ambition. Rocket Lab, meanwhile, offers a more straightforward bet on launch services and aerospace equipment but faces delays that have pushed new rocket launches to 2027. This dragged stock performance down sharply from mid-year highs, inviting a cautious second look. For South Africans, we should keep an eye on how USD/ZAR moves amid these tech-driven dollar flows—global tech strength often supports the rand via investor sentiment and foreign inflows. Rocket Lab’s pure-play space exposure isn’t mirrored on the JSE, so that makes USD/ZAR the better proxy if you lean into this sector’s volatility. If Tesla-style innovation from SpaceX falters or regulatory risks hit Starlink, both stocks could stumble. this is just our opinion and not financial advice
We’d watch Rocket Lab for now, ready to buy on any further weakness but hold off on SpaceX due to its rich valuation and exposure mostly outside the JSE. Use USD/ZAR as your barometer for space and tech risk flows.
- RKLB
- USD/ZAR
- Neutron rocket launch delays beyond 2027
- Regulation impacting Starlink and AI revenues
6/10
SpaceX and Rocket Lab are both benefiting from the growing space economy, but they offer different investment profiles. SpaceX has diversified revenue streams including Starlink (up 69% YoY) and a booming AI/Super Intelligence segment ($7.6B revenue), while Rocket Lab focuses purely on launch services and aerospace equipment. SpaceX trades at 70x sales with a $2.2T market cap, while Rocket Lab trades at 40x sales with a $31.5B market cap. Rocket Lab offers pure-play space exposure but faces near-term risks from Neutron rocket delays pushed to 2027.
Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.