Most Investors Are Overpaying for SpaceX Stock. Here's the Price I'd Actually Buy At.
2026-10-05 09:19
•Adam Levy •The Motley Fool
•••••• •• Axe Cap view
Why SpaceX’s Price Tag Feels Too Ambitious Right Now
SpaceX’s transformative potential is clear, but current valuations ask too much for too little certainty.
SpaceX is undeniably a game-changer, especially with Starlink aiming to reshape internet access and Elon Musk pushing orbital computing. But that $159 per share price? It’s betting on Musk’s optimistic $1 trillion revenue by 2030 as a sure thing. It’s not. Consider the colossal $672 billion in capital SpaceX needs through 2034 — that’s a mountain of cash to climb, and regulatory roadblocks aren’t exactly clearing anytime soon. Plus, the tech investments are still risky bets. This reminds me of the hype cycles around Tesla, where promises often ran ahead of delivery. For South African investors, the clearest link is via USD/ZAR: a higher risk appetite for private tech ventures often means more rand volatility, especially if global growth slows. If your budget can’t stomach a huge hit, better to wait or watch. SpaceX’s dream might pay off, but the price should reflect those risks. this is just our opinion and not financial advice
Avoid SpaceX shares at current prices given the steep premium and execution risks. Instead, monitor USD/ZAR for rand volatility tied to global tech sentiment before committing capital.
- USD/ZAR
- Massive capital requirements for SpaceX
- Regulatory challenges slowing growth
- Rand volatility from global tech risk appetite
6/10
While SpaceX has transformational potential through Starlink and orbital compute services, analyst Adam Levy argues the stock is overvalued at current prices. He contends the market is pricing in Elon Musk's $1 trillion 2030 revenue projection as certainty rather than possibility. Levy identifies significant risks including massive capital requirements ($672 billion through 2034), regulatory challenges, and unproven technology. He values the stock at $78 per share based on a more conservative $300 billion revenue projection for 2030, compared to the current price of ~$159.
Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.