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Stock-Split Watch: Is Caterpillar Next?

2026-09-29 12:11 •Scott Levine •The Motley Fool Positive Axe Cap view: Selective •Equities•Earnings•Financials •CAT

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Caterpillar's Stock Split: Unlikely, but Watch the Pullback

Caterpillar’s strong numbers support price gains, but a stock split seems distant despite recent volatility.

Caterpillar’s shares climbed almost 80% in a year, fueled by record revenues and an impressive backlog. Yet, despite history of splitting stock to keep shares affordable, the current price dip from $1,060 to around $820 has analysts doubtful of an imminent split. For South African investors, Caterpillar’s strength can be a barometer for industrial demand, influencing exporters of mining equipment or commodities. It also underlines why miners like AngloGold Ashanti or Barloworld might see smoother sales ahead, though rand weakness (USD/ZAR) could blur the gains if currency costs rise. A split would normally aim to attract smaller investors, yet the current share price correction suggests patience. Buy in if you want a piece of long-term industrial growth, but don’t expect a split to unlock liquidity soon. The main risk? A sharper global economic slowdown could erode demand faster than expected, impacting earnings and the share price. this is just our opinion and not financial advice

How I would invest

Watch for weakness around USD/ZAR-driven volatility and consider selectively buying mining and industrial stocks exposed to global infrastructure demand. Avoid chasing Caterpillar now, wait for more clarity on the next leg up or split.

What I would watch
  • CAT
  • USD/ZAR
  • AngloGold Ashanti
  • Barloworld
What could go wrong
  • Global economic slowdown reducing industrial demand
  • Rand volatility undermining exporter earnings
How strongly I feel

6/10

Caterpillar stock has surged 76% over the past year, touching an all-time high of $1,064 in late June, but is now trading around $820 after a 23% pullback from its peak. While the company has a history of stock splits (five times since 1976), analysts believe a near-term split is unlikely given current share prices. Strong financial performance, including record 2025 revenue of $67.6 billion and Q2 2026 revenue growth of 24%, supports the company's position as a leading industrial stock.

Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.

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