Should You Buy Rocket Lab Stock After It Just Won Its Largest Launch Contract in History?
2026-07-30 12:05
•Catie Hogan •The Motley Fool
•• •• Axe Cap view
Rocket Lab’s Big Contract: A Boost but Far from a Sure Bet
Rocket Lab’s recent $266 million U.S. Space Force deal highlights growth potential, but local investors should weigh risks before jumping in.
Rocket Lab’s win of a $266 million contract for 12 launches marks its largest government deal yet and underscores the upward trajectory of the commercial space launch industry. This shows strong demand ahead, supported by its $2 billion backlog. However, the company’s share price is still down over 50% from its peak earlier this year, reflecting operational execution concerns and investor anxiety around tech firms in risky fields. For South African investors, the case isn’t straightforward. Rocket Lab isn’t listed on the JSE, and exposure would involve dollar risk on top of a highly volatile stock. The rand’s recent swings against the dollar (USD/ZAR hovering around 18.00) only add complexity. While this contract is a positive catalyst, it won’t instantly stabilize returns. For local investors looking for growth in tech-related spaces, established JSE tech and telecom plays like Naspers and MTN offer steadier exposure and better dividends. That said, if you believe the U.S. space race has runway, Rocket Lab is a high-risk diversifier worth a small position. The view could be wrong if the firm’s rollout of its reusable Neutron rocket runs into unforeseen tech hurdles or if military budgets shift. this is just our opinion and not financial advice
Avoid chasing Rocket Lab now but watch for entry points; focus on Naspers or MTN for tech exposure. Hedge any dollar exposure given rand volatility.
- RKLB
- USD/ZAR
- Naspers
- MTN
- Technical delays or failures in Rocket Lab’s reusable rocket development
- Volatility in USD/ZAR impacting returns for South African investors
6/10
Rocket Lab announced a $266 million contract with the U.S. Space Force for 12 suborbital missions with options for six more. Despite the stock falling over 50% from its May peak of $151, the company has $2 billion in backlog and is nearing launch of its reusable Neutron rocket. The analyst views this as a positive catalyst for the space company and recommends it for patient, risk-tolerant investors.
Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.