Waiting for the Perfect Moment to Invest? History Says That Could Cost You.
2026-10-24 08:30
•Neil Patel •The Motley Fool
•• •• Axe Cap view
Why Waiting to Time the Market Could Cost You
Missing the best days in the market significantly cuts your returns over time.
Trying to predict the perfect moment to enter or exit the market is seductive but rarely works out. Over the past decade, the S&P 500 returned roughly 15.7% annually. Yet, skipping just the 10 best trading days chopped that to 7.4%. For South African investors, this is a stark reminder: the rand (USD/ZAR) and local stocks like Naspers or FirstRand can swing wildly, but locking in capital and staying put often beats aggressive switching. Look at Naspers and Prosus—these counters have had their ups and downs but remain key gateways to global tech exposure for the JSE. Rather than waiting on the sidelines for a “better entry,” consistent investing, possibly monthly or quarterly, taps into compound growth. Of course, if a major economic shock hits South Africa, prolonged market dips could test your patience. But sitting out to time a perfect bottom can mean missing out on the market's strongest rebounds. this is just our opinion and not financial advice
Stick to a regular investment plan in the JSE’s core stocks like Naspers and FirstRand while watching USD/ZAR for currency risk; avoid trying to time entry points. Be prepared to hold through volatility.
- Naspers
- FirstRand
- USD/ZAR
- Severe economic downturn in South Africa
- Unexpected currency volatility in USD/ZAR
7/10
The article argues that attempting to time the stock market is a losing strategy. Historical data shows the S&P 500 averaged 15.7% annual returns over the past decade, but missing just the 10 best trading days would reduce returns to 7.4%. The key to investment success is staying invested long-term, leveraging compound growth, and using dollar-cost averaging rather than trying to buy low and sell high.
Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.