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Why SpaceX Stock Dropped on Thursday

2026-10-22 22:40 •Johnny Rice •The Motley Fool Negative Axe Cap view: Selective •Equities•M&A•Technology•AI•Semiconductors•Autos •SPCX•META•TSLA

Axe Cap view

SpaceX Capex Woes Hit Shares; What SA Investors Should Watch

Sky-high spending and merger doubts sent SpaceX shares tumbling, offering a cautionary tale for South African investors watching capital-intensive tech plays.

SpaceX’s 9% share drop this week underscores the massive price tags behind AI expansion. Their Q4 capital expenditure outlook of $35-40 billion—and resulting negative free cash flow—signals that even tech giants can hit a wall when infrastructure costs spiral. For JSE investors, this is a useful lens for understanding Rand-sensitive sectors tied to global tech cycles. Companies like Naspers and Prosus, which hold big stakes in tech firms, could feel pressure if funding dries up globally or if the USD/ZAR stays elevated, making imports and capital more expensive. The tentative Tesla merger chatter adds more uncertainty—mergers rarely sail smoothly when regulators smell complications, and Musk’s public endorsements sometimes invite unwanted scrutiny. While SpaceX is US-listed, the story reinforces why keeping an eye on the USD/ZAR exchange is crucial. If the Rand weakens further against the dollar, local tech-linked counters might underperform despite domestic fundamentals. This view might falter if AI-driven profits materialize sooner than expected, easing cash flow worries. this is just our opinion and not financial advice

How I would invest

Avoid adding exposure to tech-heavy counters like Prosus for now. Watch USD/ZAR levels closely—if the Rand stabilizes below 18 to the dollar, consider cautious trimming in Naspers. Hold cash to deploy on clear entry points.

What I would watch
  • USD/ZAR
  • Naspers
  • Prosus
What could go wrong
  • persistent Rand weakness
  • unexpected fast AI profit generation
How strongly I feel

6/10

SpaceX shares fell 9.1% on October 22, 2026, due to concerns over massive capital expenditures needed for AI expansion and uncertainty surrounding potential merger talks with Tesla. The company reported $16 billion in capex with projections of $35-40 billion in Q4, resulting in negative free cash flow. Additionally, Reuters reported that some involved in Tesla merger discussions worry that Musk's public endorsement could trigger unwanted scrutiny and delays.

Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.

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