SpaceX's Adjusted Earnings Quadrupled in Q3. Is the Stock Heading Back to $200?
2026-10-26 23:20
•David Jagielski, Cpa •The Motley Fool
•••••• • Axe Cap view
SpaceX's Stellar Growth but Sky-High Valuation Caps Upside
SpaceX's Q3 earnings impress, but steep valuation and capex-heavy outlook temper enthusiasm.
SpaceX delivered headline-grabbing numbers in Q3 — revenue more than doubled and adjusted earnings quadrupled, driven by a promising AI-focused segment. But out here in South Africa, we have to ask: what does that mean for our JSE investors? South African tech markets are hardly a proxy for an unlisted US behemoth like SpaceX, and with its price-to-earnings ratio sitting around 85, much of the growth story feels baked in. The USD/ZAR pair is likely a better barometer for local sentiment toward highly speculative US tech. If the rand weakens due to global dollar strength, it could eat into returns from any US tech exposure. Here, investors might do better watching how first-tier JSE tech players like Naspers and Prosus digest global tech trends, especially with AI becoming more central. SpaceX’s hefty capital expenditure and reliance on future breakthroughs add risk. We prefer to watch rather than rush in. this is just our opinion and not financial advice
Avoid direct US tech bets like SpaceX for now and instead keep an eye on Naspers and Prosus as local proxies for tech exposure, especially if the rand stabilizes. Consider trading around USD/ZAR moves to manage currency risk.
- USD/ZAR
- Naspers
- Prosus
- Sustained USD strength weakening rand returns
- SpaceX's high capital spending limiting profit growth
6/10
SpaceX reported impressive Q3 results with revenue more than doubling to $14.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA quadrupling to $8.8 billion, driven largely by its Super Intelligence segment. However, despite strong growth, the stock remains highly valued at 85x estimated future profits with a $2 trillion market cap, and analysts don't expect it to reach its previous $200 peak without a more significant catalyst.
Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.