3 Reasons SpaceX Stock Could Drop 30% by 2028
2026-07-17 06:30
•Prosper Junior Bakiny •The Motley Fool
••••••• • Axe Capital view
Why SpaceX’s Stunning Debut Might Not Last
SpaceX faces headwinds that could send its stock down 30% by 2028, despite early excitement.
SpaceX’s IPO dazzled investors at $135 a share, but that initial buzz may fade fast. The company’s AI unit is burning cash—$6.4 billion in losses on $3.2 billion revenue is not trivial, and there's no clear path to profit in sight. Meanwhile, Japan and China are making strides in reusable rocket technology, threatening SpaceX’s lead. For South African investors, this means watching USD/ZAR closely, as any major US tech setback tends to weigh on rand sentiment. Locally, it’s better to stay with quality counters like Naspers or Prosus, which have diversified tech exposure and less headline risk. SpaceX’s $1.8 trillion valuation looks stretched—if the market turns skeptical, a 30% trimming could be possible. If the AI business suddenly shows clear profits, or if geopolitical tensions limit Chinese gains, the picture could change. this is just my opinion and not financial advice
Avoid direct exposure to SpaceX for now; prefer sticking with resilient JSE tech plays like Naspers and Prosus. Keep an eye on USD/ZAR for shifts related to US tech sector turmoil.
- USD/ZAR
- Naspers
- Prosus
- AI segment turns profitable sooner than expected
- Geopolitical tensions slow international rocket competition
6/10
SpaceX's stock, which recently completed its IPO at $135, could decline significantly by 2028 due to three main factors: fading post-IPO enthusiasm as investors evaluate fundamentals, substantial operating losses in its AI segment ($6.4 billion loss on $3.2 billion revenue in 2025) with unclear profitability timeline, and increasing international competition in reusable rocket technology from Japan and China that could erode its technological advantage.
This article was originally published by The Motley Fool and has been adapted here for Axe Capital Trading News.
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Author: Prosper Junior Bakiny
Categories: Equities, Earnings, IPOs, Geopolitics, Technology, AI, Semiconductors
Tickers: SPCX
Sentiment: Negative - The article presents three bearish catalysts: (1) post-IPO enthusiasm fading as investors focus on fundamentals rather than hype, (2) massive operating losses in the AI segment ($6.4B loss on $3.2B revenue) with no clear path to profitability despite heavy investment, and (3) eroding competitive moat as Japan and China successfully test reusable rockets. The $1.8 trillion valuation is characterized as significantly overvalued, with a 30% decline to $1.26 trillion considered 'much fairer value.'
Keywords: SpaceX IPO, stock valuation, AI business losses, reusable rockets, international competition, market overvaluation
Insights:
- SPCX: Negative: The article presents three bearish catalysts: (1) post-IPO enthusiasm fading as investors focus on fundamentals rather than hype, (2) massive operating losses in the AI segment ($6.4B loss on $3.2B revenue) with no clear path to profitability despite heavy investment, and (3) eroding competitive moat as Japan and China successfully test reusable rockets. The $1.8 trillion valuation is characterized as significantly overvalued, with a 30% decline to $1.26 trillion considered 'much fairer value.'