$10,000 Invested in Rocket Lab 3 Years Ago Is Worth This Much Today, Even After a 61% Drawdown.
2026-08-01 10:17
•Daniel Sparks •The Motley Fool
••• •• Axe Cap view
Rocket Lab's Wild Ride: What It Means for SA Investors
Rocket Lab’s 8x return masks risks from a pricey Iridium deal and big losses.
Rocket Lab’s 8-fold gain over three years sounds tempting, yet it’s a textbook example of growth at any cost. The company’s booming revenue—projected to jump from $245 million in 2023 to $602 million in 2025—and a $2.2 billion order backlog speak to real demand in satellite tech. But the $8 billion Iridium acquisition throws a wrench in the works. That price tag, more than 50 times last year’s revenue, means heavy dilution and financing risks, particularly with the business still losing money. For South African investors focused on the JSE, there’s no direct equivalent, so keep an eye instead on USD/ZAR. A weaker rand could increase the local cost of holding global tech growth bets like Rocket Lab. While it’s a fascinating play on space infrastructure, anyone diving in should tread lightly and expect volatility. This view could be wrong if Rocket Lab rapidly turns profitable or succeeds in integrating Iridium smoothly. this is just our opinion and not financial advice
Wait on Rocket Lab for now and limit exposure to a small portion of your portfolio to manage risk. Watch USD/ZAR closely; a weaker rand makes this kind of offshore tech investment more expensive.
- RKLB
- USD/ZAR
- Iridium acquisition integration may fail or cause unexpected dilution
- Ongoing operating losses could pressure Rocket Lab’s share price
6/10
A $10,000 investment in Rocket Lab three years ago would be worth approximately $81,000 today, despite a 61% drawdown from its peak of $151. The company has demonstrated strong operational growth with revenue increasing from $245M (2023) to $602M (2025), a record backlog of $2.2B, and a major $266M Space Force contract. However, the pending $8B acquisition of Iridium Communications raises concerns about financing costs and dilution, with the company still unprofitable and trading at over 50x trailing revenue.
Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.