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Could Investing $10,000 in USA Rare Earth Make You a Millionaire?

2026-10-23 13:05 •Steven Porrello •The Motley Fool Neutral Axe Cap view: Selective •Equities •USAR•MP

Axe Cap view

Don’t Expect to Get Rich Quick from USA Rare Earth

USA Rare Earth’s potential won’t turn $10,000 into $1 million anytime soon.

USA Rare Earth (USAR) has a neat play in rare-earth mining, crucial for electric vehicles and tech. Yet, expecting a $10,000 stake to multiply into $1 million is fantasy. For that, USAR would need to hit a market value north of $380 billion—that’s more than the entire South African JSE All Share Index by a big margin. The competition, especially MP Materials (MP), already has a leg up. The real challenge is scale and global demand. Locally, this reminds me of how South African miners like AngloGold Ashanti hold firm value simply because they serve steady markets. USAR’s story is still worth anchoring to USD/ZAR movements since currency swings impact costs and returns for any South African interest in rare-earth supply chains. If the global surge in clean tech fizzles or China ramps production faster, USAR’s run could stall. this is just our opinion and not financial advice

How I would invest

Avoid jumping into USAR hoping for a windfall; instead, watch the USD/ZAR and local miners like AngloGold for steadier exposure to resource demand. Keep positions small and diversified.

What I would watch
  • USAR
  • MP
  • USD/ZAR
  • AngloGold Ashanti
What could go wrong
  • Global rare-earth supply changes affect valuations
  • Stronger competitors capture market share or scale faster
How strongly I feel

6/10

While USA Rare Earth has potential as a rare-earth mining company with domestic supply chain advantages, a $10,000 investment is unlikely to turn into $1 million. The company would need to reach a $380 billion valuation to deliver a 100-fold return, which is unrealistic given market demand constraints and competition from MP Materials. However, the stock could still provide solid long-term returns as part of a diversified portfolio.

Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.

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