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Prediction: Within 18 Months, Microsoft Will Be More Valuable Than Apple

2026-08-03 20:30 David Jagielski, Cpa The Motley Fool Mixed Axe Cap view: Selective EquitiesEarningsTechnologyAISemiconductors MSFTAAPL

Axe Cap view

Microsoft Set to Overtake Apple Within 18 Months

AI-driven growth and valuation gaps favor Microsoft over Apple in coming months.

Apple still wears the crown in market cap, but it’s starting to feel like a king with expensive tastes and slowing momentum. Trading at 35 times earnings, Apple’s valuation looks stretched, especially given its cautious approach to AI innovation on flagship products like the iPhone. Microsoft, on the other hand, is quietly winning the AI arms race. With its Copilot AI embedded deeply across Office and Azure cloud services, the company is tapping into real enterprise demand that should drive revenue growth. Trading at 27 times earnings, Microsoft feels less frothy and more justified. For South African investors, Microsoft exposure typically comes via offshore funds, but the rand’s current weakness versus the dollar (USD/ZAR near 19.50) means these gains can multiply when converted back home. If the rand strengthens or global tech sentiment sours, however, the trade could falter. Keep an eye, especially through global tech ETFs or ETFs with Microsoft exposure, and trim Apple positions for now. this is just our opinion and not financial advice

How I would invest

Favor buying Microsoft exposure via global tech funds while reducing Apple holdings. Monitor USD/ZAR closely to manage currency risk.

What I would watch
  • USD/ZAR
  • MSFT
  • AAPL
What could go wrong
  • Rand appreciation reducing ZAR returns from USD assets
  • Unexpected AI breakthroughs from competitors or slower Microsoft adoption
How strongly I feel

6/10

A Motley Fool analyst predicts Microsoft will surpass Apple in market valuation within 18 months. While Apple currently leads with a $4.5 trillion market cap versus Microsoft's $3.6 trillion, Microsoft is positioned better to capitalize on AI growth opportunities. Apple's valuation at 35x earnings appears inflated compared to Microsoft's 27x earnings multiple, suggesting potential for a pullback in Apple stock.

Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.

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