SpaceX Still Trades Above Its IPO Price. Could Anthropic Do the Same?
2026-09-30 01:30
•Jeremy Bowman •The Motley Fool
•••••• • Axe Cap view
Anthropic’s IPO: SpaceX Shows It’s Possible to Defy Early Volatility
SpaceX’s IPO journey suggests Anthropic might hold value despite high valuation and initial bumps.
When SpaceX went public, few expected it to hold value so soon after IPO turbulence. Yet, it stabilized around 10% above its IPO price, showing the market can reward visionary but complex tech plays. Anthropic, aiming for a massive $2 trillion valuation amid rapid 1,000% revenue growth, is the next big test. Unlike SpaceX, Anthropic lacks Elon Musk’s star power and faces scrutiny over AI safety, which could scare some investors off. For South African investors, the direct link to JSE stocks is limited, but watch USD/ZAR closely. A strong dollar lifts the cost of tech imports and squeezes local companies with dollar debt, while a weaker rand could entice global investors hunting growth. If Anthropic succeeds, it could boost appetite for similar listings and tech-linked assets globally, indirectly shaping rand sentiment. But if safety worries escalate or growth disappoints, the IPO could disappoint—risking tech appetite and rand strength alike. this is just our opinion and not financial advice
Watch the USD/ZAR for moves reacting to global tech IPO sentiment. For direct plays, stay away from speculative tech and prefer strong local banks like Standard Bank or FirstRand, which benefit from a structurally weaker rand and yield cushion.
- USD/ZAR
- Standard Bank
- FirstRand
- AI safety regulations hitting investor sentiment
- Rand volatility amplifying foreign capital flows
5/10
Anthropic is preparing for an IPO expected in November at a $2 trillion valuation. The article uses SpaceX as a comparison point, noting that despite initial volatility after its June IPO, SpaceX has stabilized and now trades about 10% above its IPO price. Anthropic has advantages over SpaceX including faster growth (1,000%+ revenue increase) and lower valuation relative to growth, though it faces challenges from safety concerns and less charismatic leadership compared to Elon Musk.
Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.