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TSMC vs. ASML: Which Is the Better Semiconductor Equipment Stock to Own for the Next 10 Years?

2026-08-11 00:30 Dave Kovaleski The Motley Fool Positive Axe Cap view: Selective EquitiesEarningsTechnologyAISemiconductors TSMASMLAAPLNVDAAMDAVGOINTCMU

Axe Cap view

TSMC vs ASML: Where to Bet on Semiconductors for the Long Run?

Between TSMC and ASML, TSMC looks like the safer semiconductor play with better valuation and broader market reach.

Semiconductors are the backbone of every tech advance, and Taiwan’s TSMC and the Dutch ASML stand tall as leaders. TSMC controls most of the world’s chip foundry business, especially advanced AI chips. ASML, on the other hand, builds the machines that make ultra-precise chips, with a near-monopoly on extreme ultraviolet lithography. For South African investors looking for indirect exposure, the USD/ZAR exchange rate is key. A weaker rand can dampen returns on offshore semiconductor holdings, but a steady rand and a global shift toward AI chips support TSMC’s story. TSMC’s valuation of roughly 36 times earnings feels more reasonable than ASML’s stretched 56 times, given the broader customer base including giants like Apple and Nvidia. ASML’s dominance in lithography is impressive but concentrated among a handful of clients, adding risk. If global technology spending dips or geopolitical tensions disrupt supply chains, both stocks could face pressure. Still, prefer TSMC, with a nod to ASML if you accept the valuation premium. this is just our opinion and not financial advice

How I would invest

Buy TSMC for balanced growth and valuation. Keep ASML on watch, but trim if valuations extend further. Hedge gains with USD/ZAR exposure to manage currency risks.

What I would watch
  • TSMC
  • ASML
  • USD/ZAR
What could go wrong
  • Geopolitical tensions impacting supply chains
  • Volatility in USD/ZAR affecting offshore returns
How strongly I feel

7/10

TSMC and ASML are identified as two of the best long-term semiconductor stocks due to their dominant market positions. TSMC controls 73% of the foundry market and 90% of advanced AI chips, while ASML dominates with 90% market share in lithography and 100% in extreme ultraviolet equipment. The article recommends both stocks but slightly favors TSMC due to its lower valuation (36x earnings vs. ASML's 56x) and more diversified customer base.

Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.

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