SpaceX Stock Is Down 40% From Its Post-IPO Peak. Here's What History Says Happens to Mega-IPOs After a Drop Like This.
2026-07-21 20:29
•Jennifer Saibil •The Motley Fool
••• ••••• Axe Capital view
What SpaceX’s IPO Drop Means for South African Investors
Large IPOs often stumble early, and SpaceX’s 40% fall below its IPO price fits a common pattern.
SpaceX’s hefty 40% slide since its IPO peak fits a familiar tale for big tech listings: they often sputter before they rally. Historical mega-IPOs like Visa and Meta eventually skyrocketed, but others like Rivian show some bombs slip under the radar for years. South African investors should size this in context. Unlike U.S. tech giants, we don’t have a local SpaceX, but we do have exposure to tech via Prosus and Naspers, which have already faced tough scrutiny. The rand’s movement against the dollar will largely dictate offshore tech exposure sentiment; a weaker rand inflates these costs locally. If you’re tempted to chase mega-IPOs, remember early declines are almost baked in, and fundamental strength matters more. Watch USD/ZAR closely — if the rand slides sharply, it dims local gains from expensive foreign tech shares. This take might be wrong if SpaceX's disruptive tech delivers quicker-than-expected profits or if the rand abruptly stabilises. this is just my opinion and not financial advice
Trim offshore-heavy tech exposure via Naspers and Prosus for now, focusing instead on resilient local sectors like banks and resources. Keep an eye on USD/ZAR — a sustained rand decline would hurt dollar-based asset returns.
- Naspers
- Prosus
- USD/ZAR
- SpaceX or mega-IPOs deliver faster profits, boosting foreign tech shares
- Rand stabilises or strengthens, improving offshore asset returns
6/10
SpaceX stock has fallen 40% from its post-IPO peak and trades below its $135 IPO price. Historical analysis of mega-IPOs like Visa, Meta, General Motors, and Rivian shows mixed results, with most experiencing early declines before recovering over time. However, few mega-IPOs have delivered exceptional returns, suggesting investors may find better opportunities in lower-profile IPOs with strong fundamentals.
This article was originally published by The Motley Fool and has been adapted here for Axe Capital Trading News.
Publisher: The Motley Fool
Author: Jennifer Saibil
Categories: Equities, Earnings, IPOs
Tickers: SPCX, V, META, GM, RIVN
Sentiment: Mixed - Stock is down 40% from post-IPO peak and trading below both its $135 IPO price and $150 opening price, indicating poor near-term performance despite being the largest IPO ever. One of the few mega-IPOs that became a megacap company (16th most valuable in U.S.), with IPO value of $18 billion growing to $676 billion, demonstrating exceptional long-term value creation.
Keywords: mega-IPO, SpaceX, IPO performance, stock decline, investment history, market recovery
Insights:
- SPCX: Negative: Stock is down 40% from post-IPO peak and trading below both its $135 IPO price and $150 opening price, indicating poor near-term performance despite being the largest IPO ever.
- V: Positive: One of the few mega-IPOs that became a megacap company (16th most valuable in U.S.), with IPO value of $18 billion growing to $676 billion, demonstrating exceptional long-term value creation.
- META: Positive: Mega-IPO that became a megacap company (7th most valuable in U.S.), with IPO value of $16 billion growing to $1.6 trillion, showing strong long-term performance despite initial 18% decline after one month.