If a Bear Market Is Coming in 2026, Here's 1 ETF That History Says Has Never Let Investors Down
2026-08-04 14:30
•Ben Gran •The Motley Fool
•••• •••• Axe Cap view
Is VOO’s US S&P 500 Exposure Worth It for South African Investors?
Even with talk of a 2026 bear market, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF’s record demands a closer look from JSE investors.
Many South African investors look across the Atlantic and wonder, is it worth buying into the US market via broad ETFs like VOO when local equities offer familiar territory? The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has an enviable track record: decades of average annual returns around 10%, surviving shocks from recessions to wars. Its low fees and huge diversification remove single-stock risks such as overexposure to big tech. For rand investors, currency is a double-edged sword — the USD/ZAR rate swings can eat into returns or boost them. With the rand trading near the R18/$ mark and global uncertainty ahead, VOO offers a way to balance volatility with steady growth exposure. That said, if the rand suddenly strengthens or the JSE financials rebound sharply, local counters like Standard Bank or Sasol might outperform. Investors should be realistic about timing and currency risk when buying into US ETFs. this is just our opinion and not financial advice
We recommend watching the USD/ZAR closely before adding VOO. For new investors, a small starter position in VOO makes sense, complemented by selective JSE shares like Naspers for tech exposure and Standard Bank for yield and local currency hedging.
- VOO
- USD/ZAR
- Naspers
- Standard Bank
- Stronger ZAR eroding USD returns
- Unforeseen US economic slowdown triggering the feared 2026 bear market
6/10
The article recommends the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) as a reliable long-term investment strategy despite concerns about potential bear markets in 2026. With $1.7 trillion in assets under management, a 0.03% expense ratio, and 10-year annualized returns of 15.04%, the ETF provides diversified exposure to 506 of America's largest companies. Historical data shows the S&P 500 has delivered approximately 10% annual returns since 1928, even through major crises, supporting a buy-and-hold strategy for long-term investors.
Our take is based on reporting first published by The Motley Fool.