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DOW's Shares Rally 30% YTD: What's Driving the Momentum?

2026-09-04 12:19 Na Zacks Investment Research Positive Axe Cap view: Selective EquitiesEarnings DOWWSCRSAVNT

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Dow Inc.'s Strong Rally: What SA Investors Should Watch

Dow Inc. gains nearly 30% YTD, driven by cost-cutting and specialty chemical growth.

Dow Inc.'s near 30% gain this year is impressive in a global chemical sector up 22%. The company's focus on cost reduction—targeting $1.3 billion in savings by 2026—and expansion into specialty silicones shows discipline and a shift to higher-margin businesses. While Dow itself isn’t listed on the JSE, its performance highlights demand strength and margin recovery in chemicals, which could be positive for South African industrial names like Sasol. Sasol faces its own challenges but a stronger global chemical cycle and operational efficiency could lift returns. Watch USD/ZAR closely; a stable or stronger rand could help local input costs rise less sharply, supporting margins. The risk? Dow's plans are ambitious; any hiccup in execution or lower global chemical demand could stall gains. For now, the macro trends seem favourable but stay alert to currency swings and commodity price shifts. this is just our opinion and not financial advice

How I would invest

Watch Sasol and related industrials for a potential entry on dips, especially if USD/ZAR stabilizes below 18.0. Avoid aggressive exposure until we see consistent earnings improvement and currency support.

What I would watch
  • Sasol
  • USD/ZAR
What could go wrong
  • Execution risk on Dow’s cost-cutting translating globally
  • Volatility in USD/ZAR impacting South African industrial margins
How strongly I feel

6/10

Dow Inc. (DOW) shares have gained 29.9% year-to-date, outperforming the chemicals industry's 22% increase. The company is driving growth through cost-reduction initiatives, specialty silicones expansion, and alkoxylation investments. Dow expects over $1.3 billion in self-help benefits in 2026, including $700 million from its new 'Transform to Outperform' initiative. The company carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating.

Our take is based on reporting first published by Zacks Investment Research.

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