The S&P 500 has gained 30.6% during the first 20 months of Trump's second term, slightly outpacing the 28.5% gain during the same period of his first term. Despite historical trends showing midterm election years underperform, stocks remain resilient amid geopolitical challenges and inflation concerns. Analysts suggest divided government and the historically strong third year of presidential cycles could support continued market strength into 2027.
Axe note: Strong US equity gains under Trump's second term offer a nuanced signal for South African markets ahead of midterms.